Anthropic ExitMaresquier / Topco + Roundtable · $2T IPO case
Exit arbitrage
Exiting today only wins if today’s tax is below ~15.2%.
Overview of the options: stay invested until IPO, or sell today at $660/share, pay tax today, then roll the net proceeds into a new vehicle at $589/share.
Strict comparison
Final net proceeds at IPO, based on the tax rate paid today
Waterfall: MVP 8% → tax → Upscalers 12%; new vehicle: 20% carry
| Scenario | Net IPO | MOIC | Delta vs A |
|---|---|---|---|
| A — Stay invested until IPO25% tax applied at IPO on Topco + Roundtable | $4.032.471 | 5,58x | — |
| B — Exit today · 0% taxBest caseNet proceeds rolled at $589/share, 16% fees included | $4.548.706 | 6.29x | +$516.235 |
| B — Exit today · 12.5% taxStill above Scenario A | $4.124.907 | 5.71x | +$92.435 |
| B — Exit today · 25% taxTax leakage destroys the reinvestment arbitrage | $3.701.107 | 5.12x | −$331.364 |
Breakeven point
Below ~15.2% tax today, exiting and rolling over is the winning option
0%12.5%15.2%25%
Zone B: exit + roll-over is better
Zone A: staying until IPO is better
Economic read: selling at $660 crystallizes value at a high reference price and recreates exposure at $589.
The arbitrage still works after 16% entry fees and 20% carry, but only if the tax paid today remains below ~15.2%.
At 25% tax today, staying invested until IPO is the more rational choice.
Waterfall
How the net proceeds are calculated
1
Gross capital gain
Exit price × 5,056 shares minus the initial cost basis of $723,008.
2
MVP carry
8% on gross capital gain, before tax.
3
Tax
Applied to capital gain after MVP carry.
4
Upscalers carry
12% on post-tax net capital gain.
Assumptions
Inputs used
Topco3.000 actions
Roundtable2.056 actions
Entry price$143/share
Sale today$660/share
Rollover$589/action
Entry fees16% included
New vehicle20% carry
IPO case$2T · $1,221/share